We seem to be inching closer to another world war. I’m not the first to proclaim this. People have been predicting the outbreak of World War III for years. But the parallels between the events unfolding today and those that preceded the Second World War are becoming harder to ignore. History, as it has the nasty habit of doing, appears to be repeating itself.
Since humans began roaming the earth, conflict has been a recurring feature of our existence. Perhaps that is the natural order of things. We are creatures capable of extraordinary reason, yet perpetually susceptible to fear, greed, pride and the intoxicating effects of power. When those in positions of authority succumb to these impulses, war is often declared and armies march.
The events that led to the Second World War, and the events playing out today, are eerily similar. In 1935, Italy, helmed by Mussolini, invaded Ethiopia in an attempt to expand its colonial footprint. Ethiopia was a member of the League of Nations, the precursor organisation to the UN, but while its member states condemned the invasion, they stopped short of military intervention. This weakened the credibility of the League of Nations. Instead, Britain and France imposed oil sanctions against Italy. But all this achieved was to push Mussolini closer to his fellow fascist, Hitler, and the pair strengthened their relationship. Last week, Trump lifted oil sanctions against Russia.
Let's take stock of what's happening today. To the east, Ukraine and Russia—at war since 2014—have significantly upped the ante, targeting energy and civilian infrastructure which, according to Article 52 of the Geneva Convention, is illegal. But legality is a loose concept these days. For proof, look to the Levant.
Israel’s theft of Gaza continues under the guise of ‘military zones’. A well-worn strategy from Israel’s ‘How to Be an Apartheid State’ playbook. And as though genocide were not enough to keep them busy, the illegal settlements in the West Bank continue to expand. Palestinian homes, passed down through generations, are burnt to the ground by settlers while members of the IDF watch, their guns ready to point at any Palestinian who dares fight back. But the attacks by settlers in the West Bank are no longer limited to defenceless Palestinians. Anyone who is not Israeli or Jewish seems fair game. Foreign journalists have been stomped on, shot at and hospitalised, and diplomats from Belgium, France and Poland were this week attacked by masked settlers. Through all of this, Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister of a nation-state. Slobodan Milošević was arrested and tried for less.
Further south, the Houthis are holding Saudi Arabia to ransom. It is a battle of David v. Goliath, and David is winning. Saudi's main international airport has remained closed since the deadly drone attack that killed 13 people. And personnel at the Saudi Aramco headquarters have been ordered to evacuate. The glitzy ‘Future Investment Initiative’ conference, AKA Davos in the Desert—Saudi Arabia's attempt to show the world how smart and progressive it is—has been postponed until further notice, and if there’s anything Saudi Arabia hates more than exiled journalists, it’s bad PR.
The Houthis have proven themselves to be worthy adversaries, embarrassing the Saudis, who have spent billions on high-tech US military equipment. Equipment that Donald Trump flaunted in front of the world’s press during a state visit by MBS, who sat next to Trump, grinning, gleeful at having spent $142 billion on weaponry, while 20% of his population live in poverty.
But history has long proven that power and sophisticated weaponry mean nothing when facing religious ideologues with nothing to lose. An anonymous Russian commander who fought against the Mujahideen in the Soviet-Afghan War was quoted as saying, “How can you defeat an enemy who looks into the barrel of your gun and sees Paradise?” And also, if the rumours are to be believed, the Houthis are not only receiving arms and intelligence from the Iranians but also the Chinese. Chinese-flagged vessels have been passing through the Bab-Al Mandeb without issue, thus potentially adding China as a player in the war games.
This week, Britain deployed RAF Typhoons to help defend Saudi Arabia from further Houthi attacks. ‘Defend’ may soon turn into ‘attack’ if British military infrastructure comes under fire, thus dragging Britain into a conflict it frankly cannot afford. The motivation behind British assistance seems obvious: an attempt to fill the vacuum of influence left in the Middle East by its former protector, America. Donald Trump refused MBS’s pleas for military assistance in the fight against the Houthis. The man has other problems.
America’s war against Iran was, as we now know, ill-conceived, which frankly comes as no surprise given what we know about Trump and his cabinet of incompetents. Their drama-free extraction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and the subsequent conversion of Venezuela into a vassal state, fuelled Trump's arrogant belief that he was a master military strategist. But the Iranians humbled him.
The consequences of the war on Iran on the global economy have been devastating, and the full scale of its effects has yet to be realised. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz—a baffling oversight by the Pentagon—has caused global inflation to soar at a time when it was beginning to fall, and with it, interest rates. There was light at the end of the tunnel in the difficult years after COVID, but Trump saw fit to board up that tunnel and leave us in the darkness while he added an estimated $3.2 billion, and growing, to his net worth.
I would argue that the world is in a worse state now than it was in the years that preceded the Second World War, which only fuels my suspicion that a world war is imminent. And of course, I pray that I am wrong. But this week, Wes Streeting did little to alleviate my fears by stating that every household in Britain should have at least three days’ worth of food in their pantries in the event that we find ourselves under siege. However, I disagree. Three days’ worth of food isn’t enough. It took my local M&S Food Hall a month to restock on garlic bread after they were hacked in 2025.